Key Points
- Bitcoin miners could potentially liquidate around $5 billion in BTC after the upcoming halving, according to market analysts.
- Historically, this has led to a sideways trend in Bitcoin prices for several months following past halvings.
Market experts anticipate that Bitcoin miners may dispose of approximately $5 billion worth of Bitcoin after the imminent halving. This is a pattern that has been observed in previous cycles.
Predictions by Markus Thielen
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, estimated in an April 13 analyst note that this liquidation could occur post-halving. He further suggested that the impact of this selling could persist for four to six months, which could explain why Bitcoin might experience a sideways trend for the next few months, as it has done after previous halvings.
Thielen opined that this could occur again, with the crypto markets facing a substantial challenge during a six-month ‘summer’ lull. Bitcoin prices stayed within the range of $9,000 and $11,500 for five months after the 2020 halving.
Upcoming Halving and Its Impact
The upcoming halving is expected to take place around April 20, just six days from now. Therefore, markets may not witness a significant upward trend until around October, if history repeats itself. Thielen also noted that miners tend to hoard BTC, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and a subsequent rally in Bitcoin prices leading up to the halving.
This phenomenon has already occurred, with Bitcoin values soaring 74% in 2024 to a record high of $73,734 on March 14 before dropping below $63,000 in mid-April. Thielen also highlighted the significant impact on altcoins, which have substantially retreated from their peak values in 2021.
Thielen mentioned that Marathon, the world’s largest Bitcoin miner, has accumulated an inventory likely to be gradually sold post-halving to prevent a sharp drop in revenue. If all miners follow a similar strategy, the market could see up to $104 million worth of Bitcoin being sold each day post-halving, potentially reversing the supply-demand imbalance that has fueled the recent price rally.
The halving will reduce the amount of Bitcoin that miners can earn each day for validating transactions from 900 to 450. This could result in revenue losses of around $10 billion a year for the industry.
Miners such as Marathon Digital Holdings, CleanSpark, and others have invested in new equipment and sought to acquire smaller competitors in an effort to offset these revenue declines.
Matthew Kimmell, a digital asset analyst at CoinShares, said, “This is the final push for miners to squeeze out as much revenue as they can before their production takes a big hit. The strategic response of each miner and how they adapt could determine who comes out ahead and who gets left behind.”
Marathon CEO Peter Thiel stated that the company’s break-even rate for profitability after the halving would be around $46,000 per BTC, assuming no substantial price changes in the six months following the event.
Alvin Kan, COO at Bitget Wallet, said that a larger bullish cycle has traditionally followed the Bitcoin halving. He added that ETFs will continue to be a major factor in the market’s dynamics. Since the SEC’s approval in January, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a total cumulative net inflow of $56.27 billion, marking the fastest growth in the history of the ETF market. This rapid influx has contributed to Bitcoin reaching its all-time high so early in the bull market.
